Congress Comeback in the Indian Elections of 2009Dietmar Rothermund

ASIEN – Nr. 112/113 (2009) pp. 123–29

The parliamentary elections held in four phases from April to May 2009 sprung a surprise on everybody concerned. Nobody had been able to predict the triumphant comeback of the Congress party. A neck-to-neck race with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was expected, and as voters often turn against the incumbent, a swing toward the BJP was on the cards. Instead Congress topped its performance of 2004 and the BJP suffered a humiliating defeat. Ever since Rajiv Gandhi’s defeat in 1989, Congress had been in the doldrums. The comeback seemed to foreshadow a revival of the „Congress System“ which had prevailed earlier. The Indian National Congress had spearheaded the freedom movement and then turned into a state supporting and state supported party which legitimized its rule by free elections. In these elections, the Congress candidates usually triumphed because they benefited from triangular contests in which rivalling opposition parties helped them to win. In those days Congress used to obtain about 45 per cent of the national vote but about two thirds of the parliamentary seats. Thus the prevailing majority election system did not produce a two-party system of the British type. Moreover, state and central elections were held simultaneously prior to 1971 and the candidates for the state assemblies which had smaller constituencies and were closer to the people carried the candidate for the central parliament along. An added feature of the early Congress System was the pattern of leadership. Most of the central ministers as well as the state chief ministers were „prison graduates“ who had participated in the freedom movement. Jawaharlal Nehru who was Prime Minister until his death in 1964 could get along very well with powerful leaders in his cabinet and in the states. His successors failed in this respect, the more so as the generation of the „prison graduates“ faded away…