Political and Economic Perspectives of Asia in the 21st CenturyEckhard Rohkamm

ASIEN – Nr. 100 (2006) pp. 49–53

In the past years, speculations about a forthcoming Pacific Century have been quite in fashion among Western as well as Asian intellectuals. And the headlines in most major newspapers, announcing when either China or India would overtake the established economic powers in the West, be it in 2030 or in 2050, seem to underline that such assumptions are well-founded. Still these scenarios are based on an extrapolation of current developments both in the Asia Pacific and in the West. To anyone who has thoroughly observed developments in the world economy during the past decades, such a belief in the predictability of future events must seem rather simplistic. The corporate sector has always been well advised to restrict its forecasts to a period of 3 to 5 years – and still quite often even these cautious forecasts have been refuted by the course of economic events…